Airbus to revamp its A380 aircraft by 2022

Perhaps, in the end, the question is not really even one of size or fuel economy, but of passenger willingness to travel from home to "collection points" where they will change planes for their next destination.

The Gulf carriers have made a specialty of that: Gather up Asia passengers from the U.S. and Europe and then sort them out and take them to India, China, Australia, etc., and do the same for passengers from those regions. That works as long as you have to make a change anyway.

But the extreme efficiency and long-distance certifications for the 787 and 777, and perhaps the A350, give passengers the option of more direct (and often shorter in time) direct routes. Chicago to New Delhi without changing planes seems a likely-more-popular alternative than Chicago-Doha-New Delhi, with a "whole 'nother airport" in between...

In short, my feel is that the only real future for the A380 is point-to-point flights on very dense corridors, where truly large planes can be efficient on direct flights. And for those airlines worried about the amount of business the Gulf carriers have taken, that may be good news. Certainly it is reflected in Etihad's strategy of using its wealth to buy into European airlines, not just squeeze them.

I pretty much agree.

I do think for many people convenience is the key factor.  I'm usually willing to pay a little more for a direct flight than for a connecting one (because the connection is where you run into problems).  And I don't think I'm alone in this observation.  The airlines seem to think that price is king and for some people it certainly is.

I think the A380s will succeed only if they are the cheapest planes around (lowest airfare). I can think of few things less appealing than boarding with 600 other people and worrying about whether my carryon will find an overhead bin if I'm in one of the last groups to board.  That's another place where the 787 and 777 offer great advantages.