Boeing appears to be finally acknowledging the end of the market for the 747 jumbo jet, and it’s casting doubt on rival Airbus’s A380 as well.
With airlines looking for planes that are super fuel-efficient as well as large—and that generally doesn’t mean 4-engine planes—and with more airlines looking to frequent direct flights on important routes, rather than collecting passengers in hubs, the future does look bleak for the 400-plus seaters.
For the first time, Boeing hasn’t included a separate category for very large planes in its annual 20-year forecast, and Randy Tinseth, VP of Marketing, has told analysts “We don’t see much demand for really big aircraft going forward.” And he’s not just talking about the 747; he also said “We find it hard to believe that Airbus will deliver the rest of their A380s in backlog.”
There have been no new A380 orders for several years. The latest version of the 747, the 8i, has only 5 planes on order, 3 of them for an airline that went out of business. There are 15 747F freighter orders, but that’s not enough to keep the factory going past 2020.
Airbus, it must be said, doesn’t agree: its sales chief, John Leahy, says the company is firm in its belief that the industry will eventually see a need for the plane. As for Boeing, he says: “They would do that. The 747-8 isn’t selling. We have no intention of sharing that market with them.”
With interest shifting to smaller planes and direct routes, the future seems dim for both the 747 and A-380
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